The Vegas Butcher, also known as Bodio, is one of the most-respected young handicappers in the sportsbetting industry.
He specializes in Major League Baseball and the NBA, but also releases NHL betting picks based on “reverse odds movement”, a term for when most people are betting on one side but the odds keep moving the other direction. This is typically an indication of “sharp” money coming in on the team that few people appear to be betting on.
Here’s the Vegas Butcher’s first pick of the NHL season. If you’re interested in his analysis and want to find more, the Vegas Butcher sells annual subscriptions to his website for $600. Check out his site for more information.
Chicago Blackhawks -105
Open: -130 LA Kings (Pinnacle)
Bet %: 69% LA
Current: -107 LA Kings
Kings opened at -130 at Pinny yesterday (it was even higher at some other spots) and with them getting about 69% of all the bets, the odds dropped to around -107, signifying a 23 cent decrease. This is some pretty significant ROM on a home team, in particular a team that won the Stanley Cup last season.
Speaking of winning a Stanley Cup, I’m planning to fade the Kings in EVERY SINGLE game this season. Unfortunately I didn’t get to my analysis till this morning, or else we would have played Chicago last night at even better odds. Regardless, here’s the performance of the last 3 Stanley Cup Champions, in the following year after winning it all:
2009 Champion: Pittsburgh Penguins
2009-2010 Performance: 47-35 @ -5.4 Units
2010 Champion: Chicago Blackhawks
2010-2011 Performance: 44-38 @ -11.3 Units
2011 Champion: Boston Bruins
2011-2012 Performance: 49-33 @ -5.0 Units
2012 Champion: LA Kings
2012-2013 Performance: ???
The last 3 champions have all lost units for a combined number of -21.7 Units after 246 games. Clearly the odds get inflated on a team that wins a championship and it’s been a profitable scenario to fade them the following year. I’m going to do that this year and see how we do. So interestingly enough today’s play falls into the ROM category as well as ‘Fade the Champ’ category.